Forex Models

technical analysis

Moreover, our proposed hybrid model showed a much better performance than the other three with a profit_accuracy of 68.31% (a 19.29% average improvement over the others). As in the above case, this higher accuracy was obtained by reducing the number of transactions to 42.57%. Upon selecting the Random Forest model, we realized that our model was consistently making profits from Mondays to Wednesdays while it was making losses on Thursdays and Fridays. We looked into this issue and realized that this was because after every 20 seconds, our model was retrained on data from the past 36 hours and this would mean that it was trained on data on the past one and a half-day.


  • N is the period, and Close and Close are the closing price and closing price N periods ago, respectively.
  • Using the daily closing rates of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, they compared the results of CNN with their baseline models and SVM.
  • The foreign currency market is a continuously operating marketplace, open 24 hours per day, 5 days a week.

In the one-day-ahead predictions, the individual LSTM models had a slightly better profit_accuracy than ME_TI_LSTM, which was less than 1%. However, they produced 3.91% fewer transactions than ME_TI_LSTM on average. The profit_accuracy results have higher variance in these experiments, especially in the case of 200 iterations, with 49.88% ± 9.92% accuracy on average. The average predicted transaction number is 151.50, corresponding to 62.60% of the test data. Again, the case of 200 iterations shows huge differences from the other cases, generating less than half the number of the lowest number of transactions generated by the others.


Any trading model which is developed by an individual reflects the characteristics, thought process, temperament, and experience of the trader who builds it. Often constrained by knowledge or even personal challenges of ego or blind belief in self-developed models, important aspects are occasionally overlooked by the traders. It hence becomes important to test the model on historical data, identify the errors, and avoid such losses in real-world trading. Theoretically, forex rates are said to move due to two fundamental concepts –interest rate parityandpurchasing power parity.

extended data set

Logistics regression is a supervised machine learning technique that outputs one probability or quantitative dependent variable for making binary decisions. It makes no assumptions on feature class distributions and can be easily generalized into multi-class regression. Moreover, logistic regression provides information on feature significance and association direction by the characteristics of feature coefficients. Starting from a linear equation and ending up with a sigmoid function, logistic regression is different from linear regression in feature requirements and the output variable. We also explored with Random Forest, an ensemble learning technique to make predictions on the price movement of the GBP/JPY pair.

Despite not being the cheapest, they guarantee peace of mind and a lack of common technical problems.

MinMaxScaler normalises the data values to reside between a min and a max, by default the min and the max are 0 and 1. LSTM performs better when the input values are scaled to a standard range. In part 2, I will show how to backtest the bot that is based on this model. Another level of backtesting is to run it in demo mode on the same production platform for a while, but with live data.

random forest

In this work, we used a popular deep learning tool called “long short-term memory” , which has been shown to be very effective in many time-series forecasting problems, to make direction predictions in Forex. Our proposed hybrid model, which combines two separate LSTMs corresponding to these two data sets, was found to be quite successful in experiments using real data. Traders can now use online trading applications to increase their capital by benefiting from financial markets fluctuations. The foreign exchange market, the silver and gold exchange markets, and stock indices (e.g. S&P 500) are among the most famous financial markets. Traders must identify the correct trends in any given market and take appropriate actions to increase their earnings. High levels of knowledge and competency are required to conduct profitable transactions.

For this LSTM model, the average predicted transaction number is 155.25, which corresponds to 63.89% of the test data. As seen in Table4, this model shows huge variance in the number of transactions. Meanwhile, the profit_accuracy results show small variance, with 50.69% ± 3,72% accuracy on average. Additionally, the average predicted transaction number is 149.50, which corresponds to 61.52% of the test data.


As can be seen in Table20, which summarizes all of the results, the new approach predicted fewer transactions than the other models. Moreover, the accuracy of the proposed transactions of the hybrid approach is much higher than that of the other models. The extended data set is split into training and test sets, with ratios of 90% and 10%, respectively.


Corporations primarily use FX options to hedge uncertain future cash flows in a foreign currency. The general rule is to hedge certain foreign currency cash flows with forwards, and uncertain foreign cash flows with options. Foreign exchange option – the right to sell money in one currency and buy money in another currency at a fixed date and rate. The control of the X-Z inverted pendulum is a challenging work since the X-Z inverted pendulum is an underactuated, open-loop unstable and multi-input-multi-output nonlinear system. In this paper, we will present a novel state transformation method for the X-Z inverted pendulum and Big Bang–Big Crunch optimized hierarchical sliding-mode control structure.

Forex market forecasting using machine learning: Systematic Literature Review and meta-analysis

At the end of the story, readers with some Python and ML experience will be able to use the concepts and modify the linked code to produce their own varia of the model. In part 2, reader will be able to use a commercial algo trading platform with the model. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. ArXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Our systems have detected unusual traffic activity from your network. Please complete this reCAPTCHA to demonstrate that it’s you making the requests and not a robot.

Mergers and Acquisitions in the Finance Industry – Finance Magnates

Mergers and Acquisitions in the Finance Industry.

Posted: Wed, 01 Mar 2023 14:58:53 GMT [source]

Moreover, the model showed an exceptional accuracy performance of 79.42% (34.33% improvement) by reducing the number of transactions to 32.72%. Moreover, the average profit_accuracies are 78.98% ± 15.02% and 79.23% ± 15.06% for the ME_LSTM- and TI_LSTM-based modified hybrid models, respectively. There are also some very striking cases with 100% accuracy, involving 200 iterations for at least one of the LSTM models. However, all of these cases produced a very small number of transactions.

Monthly infla rates were collected from the websites of central banks, and they were repeated for all days of the corresponding month to fill the fields in our daily records. Kara et al. compared the performance of ANN and SVM for predicting the direction of stock price index movement. They found that ANN, with an accuracy of 75.74%, performed significantly better than SVM, which had an accuracy of 71.52%.

  • The most traded currencies in the world are the United States dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, British pound, and Australian dollar.
  • Also, the US is the largest trading partner of the UK and the second-largest trading partner of Japan.
  • There is an input layer, output layer and any number of hidden layers between the input and output layer.
  • Theoretically, forex rates are said to move due to two fundamental concepts –interest rate parityandpurchasing power parity.
  • If the probability is the same, we choose the prediction of the TI_LSTM model.
  • From equities, fixed income to derivatives, the CMSA certification bridges the gap from where you are now to where you want to be — a world-class capital markets analyst.

Also discussed are the relevant points about how forex trading is different than equity trading, as well as specific points to be considered for building the forex trading model. The capital account of the trade balance is taken into consideration versus the current account balance of trade when the asset market model is used for investment purposes. This particular model focuses on a country’s monetary influx by foreign investors who are purchasing certain financial instruments such as either bonds or stocks or both.

If you are having trouble seeing or completing this challenge, this page may help. Value), which range equally between the minimum and maximum difference values. We determined the count of each bin and sorted them in descending order. After that, the counts of the bins were summed until the sum exceeded 85% of the whole count .

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